china is slowing, europe is in recession. so the main concern -- and this is a risk scenario, what they call a left tail. it's not the baseline, is that we get a tipping process that one bad thing here leads to another bad thing elsewhere, which comes back here. and that's why the hope is somehow, somehow, i don't know how, but somehow in the next week washington will find a way to avoid this fiscal cliff. >> from your lips to god's ears, mohamed, thanks very much. coming up, as long as congress doesn't trip us up, we are on the way to an economic renaissance in this country. i'll explain. ally bank. why they have a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally. >>> we are on the road to an economic renaissance. think about the united states economy like a runner a